The reporter were Mou Tsung Huang Peizhao Jie Ding Dawei Ding Xiaoxi Li Weihong newspaper in Islamabad, Cairo, Brussels, Madrid, New York, Beijing, January 29, according to a number of Members said Iran is scheduled on January 29 off the oil in the EU Parliament the draft of the public debate and consideration might be postponed to February 1. Some media analysts believe that Iran postponed consideration of the draft, the intention may be to ease the exchange with the atmosphere of the IAEA Mission.
Iran’s Parliament Energy Committee, said Vice Chairman Su Dani 28, asked the Government to immediately stop oil exports to the EU draft resolution has been drafted by the Energy Commission, the oil.
Mission arrived in Iraq to ease step by step
29, the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Tehran Mission, the Mission will be 31 left. IAEA Deputy Director-General Na Keci expressed the hope that Iran cooperate fully with the verification. Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to the Mission Salehi optimistic. Analysts pointed out that the IAEA should visit invitation from Iran, in Tehran, marking the area of tension has taken an important step. Recently, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Salehi are offered to restart nuclear talks with all parties concerned, the Mission last November to try to understand that the IAEA report, Iran’s nuclear program Iran has access to the Mission to ease relations with the West as an opportunity.
General manager of National Iranian Oil Company Ahmad Le Bani 29, said the oil embargo in response to European Union sanctions, Iran on the one hand the short term the market will open up new oil, the other will increase oil refining capacity, production More petrochemical products.
Analysts believe that Iran immediately cut off oil exports to the EU, will make its foreign exchange loss of oil from the European Union, the current lack of foreign exchange in Iran, Iran’s economy will undoubtedly bring more intense the pain, but in Europe is still looking for oil, oil source the fragile nature of the situation, under a move that could lead to high oil prices, Iran would like to see this, because this area from the high oil prices make up for lost less than the EU market, but can also prove effective countermeasures Iran , making the EU continues to import oil from Iran six months grace period’s plans.
Egypt, , which is on the nuclear issue of Iran to implement every possible delaying tactics performance.
Oil prices will head up both
It is difficult to bring the embargo time.
Arab media also analyzed that, in fact, is not afraid of Iran and the oil embargo from the European Union, because of Iran’s oil exports to Europe of its oil exports account for only about 18% of Iran’s economic and trade relations with Europe and not closely by the EU response to the U.S. initiative launched by the oil sanctions against Iran will not have much effect.
However, sanctions are not a good thing, it will make the two sides head, will suffer.
Saudi Arabia Saudi oil production is about the current 12.5 million barrels / day, of which 9 million -1000 million barrels / day for export, the remaining 250 million barrels / day, while Iran’s oil exports only 200 million barrels / day, Saudi Arabia this excess Iran’s oil production capacity can not export enough to cover arising from missing markets. According to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy, the first half of 2011, EU imports of crude oil from Iran, only 45 million barrels / day.
The IMF said that if Iran stopped exporting oil retaliatory, the global crude oil prices to rise 20% -30%. Have participated in the Davos Forum, the oil industry executives believe that the Iranian energy market can withstand 260 million barrels / day of crude oil exports reduced by half. This is roughly equivalent to last year, during the civil war reduced Libya’s oil supply. Executives say they believe Iran, Saudi Arabia can make up the gap caused by the embargo.
Hard to find oil southern Europe, the impact of alternative large
Europe is Iran’s second largest oil importer. From the microscopic point of view, Iran introduced measures to invest in Iran oil companies in Europe the greatest impact. Such as Italy’s ENI group had previously said Iran in 2000 and 2001 due to a number of oil contracts owed the company from 1.4 to 1.5 billion U.S. dollars in debt. To this end, the EU sanctions against Iran in making decisions, has said ENI can continue to buy Iranian oil to offset the debt, but the Iranian parliament’s anti-sanctions action may be taken or will result in the development of the situation repeated.
EU imports from Iran every day about 45 million barrels of crude oil, of which Italy, Spain and Greece’s dependence on Iranian oil were the highest daily imports from Iran 18 million, 160,000 and 100,000 barrels of crude oil. Spain’s The article said that the future EU countries may be forced to continue to buy Iranian oil, but had indirectly from the vulture-like middlemen in the purchase. Reuters analysis pointed out that those heavily dependent on oil from Iran, EU countries will lose Iran’s oil had expected to find alternatives to the buffer. Iran’s oil trade with Greece, the Greek government given 60 days to pay delayed payment of preferential terms. Some media analysts pointed out that the Greek government is difficult to find in a short time to provide similar benefits to the country’s oil supply, Greece or the spending on oil imports will be increased.
Iranian financial analyst 士贾拉尔萨 Da Tian also believes that Iran does not wait for the EU a month to cancel the contract, but the first step, take the initiative to repeal the contract with the European Union, the EU did not have time to find alternatives to Iranian oil, is confrontation with the EU’s oil first step, which will result in international oil prices, while high oil prices will be in Europe, especially in southern European countries, damaging the economy.
Sanctions against a long-term increase of force
China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Associate Man Lam told newspaper reporters that the analysis of the situation in Iraq, the United States is unlikely that the current military action against Iraq. Obama administration policy on Iran are constant changes, and now back to the Bush administration to curb light, the road re-negotiation.
Currently, Western economic sanctions against Iran, long-term impact remains to be seen. If the apparent effect of economic sanctions, quickly spread to Iran’s political, social and other fields, resulting in a mess inside Iran, and even lead to Ahmadinejad to step down, the use of force is unlikely. However, if economic sanctions do not show the expected results, the West may be sanctions plus military both.
It is noteworthy that the current international financial crisis continued to spread, many Western countries in trouble, making disaster one way out of crisis resolution. Some Western countries are likely to be passed by the war crisis and domestic public attention. Structural contradictions between Iraq, spiraling trend from medium to long term, increasing the likelihood of war increases.
Tian Wenlin that Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is a break the death problem. Affected in addition to the United States, Europe, and Asia will have profound implications for emerging market countries. Therefore, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Iran, is a mind, However, because it is a Therefore, the analysis of the current situation, the Iranian pre-emptive counter-measures that will be the West’s determination to fight in the end.
相关的主题文章: